Seven Oaks Magazine.

Hugo Chavez, it seems, is more popular than ever. Sunday, August 15 was a historic day for Venezuela and Latin America, as close to 5 million people voted 'No' to removing Chavez, giving the leader of the Bolivarian Revolution a mandate to continue in office until elections in December, 2006.

Turnout was unprecedented for the vote, and polls remained open past midnight to make sure everyone in the sprawling line-ups got to cast a ballot. The National Election Council (CNE) issued 'preliminary results' at 4a.m., which showed the 'No' side with 4,991,483 votes (58.25%) against 3,576,517 (41.74%) for the 'Yes'. These figures represented 94.5% of the tally from the electronic voting machines -- clearly a decisive margin and the most significant ratification yet for the radical, democratic political process in Venezuela.

The victory for Chavez resounded internationally, overshadowing the hysterical claims of 'fraud' by the opposition and the dishonest, and then reluctant, reporting in much of the mainstream media. Monday's announcement by observer Jimmy Carter -- representing the Carter Centre and the 'human rights' face of U.S. imperialism -- that there was absolutely no evidence of fraud and that the announced results were valid seriously deflated opposition charges against Chavez.

In Caracas, though, outside the Miraflores presidential palace, nobody waited for Carter's approval -- rumoured to be held-up by all-night efforts to encourage the opposition to accept the results -- as 'No' supporters celebrated their victory through the night. Chavez appeared shortly after the CNE results were released. After leading the crowd in the Venezuelan national anthem, he declared, Venezuela has changed for ever, there's no going back to the past, the fourth republic [of the pre-1999 constitution] has died.

Today's victory is not just for the people of Venezuela, Chavez said, but for the people of Latin America and the Caribbean who are struggling for their freedom.

The fourth republic, while a formal democracy, was a two-party, power-sharing regime that lasted decades but was marked by widespread corruption and deepening inequality. Neo-liberal austerity measures imposed in the late 1980s led to the Caracazo in 1989, an uprising against IMF-dictated price increases on basic goods. Thousands were killed in the repression, which acted to spur the movement led by Chavez into action, and in 1992 the young army officer attempted to take power in a failed coup. After his release from prison and the hasty creation of a new political party, the Movement for a Fifth Republic, Chavez won a landslide victory in December 1998.

The failed referendum campaign marks the opposition's third serious attempt to overturn the election of Chavez. First, there was the coup in April 2002, which was reversed within 48 hours. Then there was the 'oil strike' or 'oil coup' of December 2002 January 2003 in which production of Venezuela's key export ground to a halt. That attempt also met defeat, and, with the reorganization of the national oil company (PDVSA), production rebounded. High oil prices, in fact, played their part in defeating the latest attempt to oust Chavez, with export revenue helping to fuel popular social programs known as 'misiones'.

A number of media outlets reluctantly posted the news of the 'No' victory. For instance, the on-line version of the rabidly anti-Chavez Miami Herald kept the headline 'Chavez leads in recall vote' long after a decisive victory was clear. But the prize for outright media fabrication would have to be, surprisingly, awarded to the UK's Independent , which posted a laughable piece by Hannah Baldock:

There were no mid-morning results, and the publishing of exit poll results was not permitted. Baldock's story seemed to confirm reports of an opposition scheme to release early results in order to cast doubt on official results a plan hatched, and apparently largely dropped, in anticipation of the 'No' victory. One wonders if the (ironically named?) Independent will offer a retraction.

The referendum campaign has focused the world's attention on Venezuela and the reasons for his enduring popularity. Social programs that take advantage of the country's oil wealth to the benefit of the poor majority have been greatly expanded over the past year in particular. These misiones include expanded health care for the poor, a mass literacy campaign, accessible education through new Bolivarian Universities, and subsidized food and housing.

But the proceso in Venezuela is much more than a laundry list of urgently required reforms; contrary to the simplistic caudillo explanation of so many superficial assessments of Chavez, in Venezuela the mass of the population has become politically conscious and mobilized as never before. The organizational expression of this new participation has been fluid if not chaotic, but nevertheless it's clear that what has been called the country's increasingly activist poor now constitutes millions. (Washington Post, Poor eat better as referendum nears', August 13, 2004)

This mobilized base has much work to do, and still many obstacles to overcome, but the August 15 victory opens up new possibilities. There remains corruption in Venezuela, a by-product of both a state apparatus fuelled by oil and a layer of opportunists riding the wave of Chavismo. Speaking of opportunists, there is also the danger that the more radical process in Venezuela will become isolated in Latin America, as Lula in Brazil -- among others -- steers a centrist course in line with the dictates of international capital. But Chavez and Venezuela have many friends and allies as well, from Cuba to the rebellious movement of the indigenous in Bolivia, and throughout and well beyond the borders of what Jose Marti called 'Our America.' August 15 represents an important victory, a victory to build on, for genuine democracy, for social justice, and for the global movement against empire and domination.